August 17, 2009.
WEEKLY STOCK MARKET REPORT.
Friday Markets Closing Prices.
FBMKlci. 1188.57 up 2.38.
October FCPO RM2,441.
Ringgit 3.5150.
DJIA 9,321.40 down 76.79 or 0.82%.
Crude Oil US$67.51 down US$3.01 or 4.27%.
Gold US$948.70 down US$7.80 or 0.82%.
Natural Gas US$3.24 down US$0.10 or 2.94%.
STOCK MARKET OUTLOOK.
FBMKlci closed higher last week on strong interest in plantation related stocks due to a rally in CPO prices. Personally, I maintained my forecast for CPO prices in 2010 at RM3,000 and RM3,500 in 2011 on buoyant outlook for palm oil demand as the global recovery gather steam, weakening US Dollar, higher oil prices, weather effect such as El Nino and genuine demand due to growing world population. Reiterate BUY rating for plantation sector.
Meanwhile, DJIA fell on Friday due to an unexpected drop in consumer confidence fueled concern the steepest rally since 1930s isn’t justified by economics prospects as investors observing valuations and worrying that stocks could be ahead of themselves. Earlier, Fed Chairman and his FOMC colleagues said the US economy is “leveling out”. The Fed has pumped about US$1 trillion into the banking system in a campaign to end the crisis, triggered by mortgage defaults, that has caused more than US$1.6 trillion in losses and write downs among financial firms worldwide.
Next week, I forecast a possible long overdue market correction to set in but the pullback won’t be steep, the most around 1150 to 1160 level after the FBMKlci hit the 1200 level due to Malaysian and global economic recovery outlook and better than expected second quarter profit for FBMKlci stocks and most sector of the Malaysian economy. Moreover, profit taking can be expected after the recent market players positioning of that expectations, where SELL ON FACTS AND BUY BACK ON WEAKNESS, should be order of the day.
For the longer term, as I forecasted before in mid March 2009, the stock market is expected to test the all time high of 1525 the earliest in 2010 and to make a new high of 1661 the earliest in 2011 respectively on the way to attain the coveted develop country status by the Year 2020. I called it the correct ( √ )shape stock market recovery as it will break the previous all time high of 1525.
All it take to achieved the Vision 2020 is just a political will power to do it after a political stability has been restored.
STOCK MARKET STRATEGY.
Investors should TAKE PROFIT ON STRENGTH at the major resistance level of around 1200 and above, and BUY BACK ON WEAKNESS around 1160 and below.
ACCUMULATE plantation, banking (non-shariah), oil and gas, rubber glove manufacturer, telecommunication, utilities, property, construction and building material stocks on price weakness to positions for the next market rally on future economy and earnings recovery.
Moreover, BUY FBMKlci stocks that had announced a better than expected quarterly results with reasonable valuation such as PBBank Bhd, TNB Bhd, BCHB Bhd, Bursa M’sia Bhd, AMMB Holdings Bhd, BAT (M) Bhd, Digi.Com Bhd etc and companies that had announced strong second quarter profits such as the rubber glove manufacturers..
FBMKLCI TECHNICAL OUTLOOK.
Support Level at between 1150 to 1160.
Resistance Level at 1200.
Medium Term Target at 1331 and 1525, the previous all time high.
Long Term Modest Target at 1661 level.
For further inquiries please called Kamel Bin Mohd Yusoh at 013-6306544 or 03-21634549/50.
WEEKLY STOCK MARKET REPORT.
Friday Markets Closing Prices.
FBMKlci. 1188.57 up 2.38.
October FCPO RM2,441.
Ringgit 3.5150.
DJIA 9,321.40 down 76.79 or 0.82%.
Crude Oil US$67.51 down US$3.01 or 4.27%.
Gold US$948.70 down US$7.80 or 0.82%.
Natural Gas US$3.24 down US$0.10 or 2.94%.
STOCK MARKET OUTLOOK.
FBMKlci closed higher last week on strong interest in plantation related stocks due to a rally in CPO prices. Personally, I maintained my forecast for CPO prices in 2010 at RM3,000 and RM3,500 in 2011 on buoyant outlook for palm oil demand as the global recovery gather steam, weakening US Dollar, higher oil prices, weather effect such as El Nino and genuine demand due to growing world population. Reiterate BUY rating for plantation sector.
Meanwhile, DJIA fell on Friday due to an unexpected drop in consumer confidence fueled concern the steepest rally since 1930s isn’t justified by economics prospects as investors observing valuations and worrying that stocks could be ahead of themselves. Earlier, Fed Chairman and his FOMC colleagues said the US economy is “leveling out”. The Fed has pumped about US$1 trillion into the banking system in a campaign to end the crisis, triggered by mortgage defaults, that has caused more than US$1.6 trillion in losses and write downs among financial firms worldwide.
Next week, I forecast a possible long overdue market correction to set in but the pullback won’t be steep, the most around 1150 to 1160 level after the FBMKlci hit the 1200 level due to Malaysian and global economic recovery outlook and better than expected second quarter profit for FBMKlci stocks and most sector of the Malaysian economy. Moreover, profit taking can be expected after the recent market players positioning of that expectations, where SELL ON FACTS AND BUY BACK ON WEAKNESS, should be order of the day.
For the longer term, as I forecasted before in mid March 2009, the stock market is expected to test the all time high of 1525 the earliest in 2010 and to make a new high of 1661 the earliest in 2011 respectively on the way to attain the coveted develop country status by the Year 2020. I called it the correct ( √ )shape stock market recovery as it will break the previous all time high of 1525.
All it take to achieved the Vision 2020 is just a political will power to do it after a political stability has been restored.
STOCK MARKET STRATEGY.
Investors should TAKE PROFIT ON STRENGTH at the major resistance level of around 1200 and above, and BUY BACK ON WEAKNESS around 1160 and below.
ACCUMULATE plantation, banking (non-shariah), oil and gas, rubber glove manufacturer, telecommunication, utilities, property, construction and building material stocks on price weakness to positions for the next market rally on future economy and earnings recovery.
Moreover, BUY FBMKlci stocks that had announced a better than expected quarterly results with reasonable valuation such as PBBank Bhd, TNB Bhd, BCHB Bhd, Bursa M’sia Bhd, AMMB Holdings Bhd, BAT (M) Bhd, Digi.Com Bhd etc and companies that had announced strong second quarter profits such as the rubber glove manufacturers..
FBMKLCI TECHNICAL OUTLOOK.
Support Level at between 1150 to 1160.
Resistance Level at 1200.
Medium Term Target at 1331 and 1525, the previous all time high.
Long Term Modest Target at 1661 level.
For further inquiries please called Kamel Bin Mohd Yusoh at 013-6306544 or 03-21634549/50.
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